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"I think this is a harbinger of more problems to come, ... I think we should look for fresh new records [in delinquencies] in the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year as [credit card] payments rise higher and as energy prices really begin to bite."
Mark Zandi
"A bunch of problems that we have ahead of us are largely because of these tax cuts. They are very costly and will contribute significantly to budget deficits in the future."
"At best, people should prepare for no pay increase and no bonus, something they have been getting a lot of. At worst, they should be thinking they may need to change occupations."
"Labor will start demanding bigger pay increases and will get them."
"The job losses over the past three years have been across a wide range of industries and from coast to coast. And if you've lost your job, in all likelihood you will remain unemployed for longer than in any period since the Great Depression."
"And you know at these kind of prices, there's lots of money to be made. So I'm sure they're gonna work triple overtime to get their facilities up and running again."
"Housing has peaked. And all indications are that sales will weaken further in the months ahead."
"Going forward it will be harder for them to maintain their spending - and their living standards."
"Greenspan should weigh against asset markets in the good times -- just as he works to support them in the difficult times. He's been one-sided in his policies,"
"Fundamentally, though, it stems from the fact that China will post a $250 billion surplus on its trade with the United States this year and there's simply no sign of that easing any time soon."
"We have a sturdy job market."
"It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire (American) financial system."
"It would undermine the housing market, and could quickly result in credit problems that would affect the entire [US] financial system."
"Most likely the higher prices will slow growth, ... But there is the growing threat that we get a combination of slower growth and higher inflation."
"It does indicate that the second quarter was a disappointing quarter, ... Growth slowed sharply. Consumers became more cautious and our trade deficit ballooned. The economy was weighed down by higher energy prices."
"Investors are anticipating measurably slower profits growth. As a result, they're valuing companies that can produce good, solid earnings in an environment where earnings are going to be harder to come by."
"If revenue growth does not start to pick up that would squeeze profit margins."
"Investors are anticipating measurably slower profits growth, ... As a result, they're valuing companies that can produce good, solid earnings in an environment where earnings are going to be harder to come by."
"I suspect this is a pause and we still see a resumption of top line growth and, ultimately, better hiring in tech."
"Ultimately, if you err on the side of being dovish it will only come with more pain from slower growth. The hit to growth would be more substantial from higher inflation than from interest rate hikes."
"On the national level, I think you'll see weakness in jobs figures for September, October and maybe even November."
"Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring. But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year."
"Part of the problem that all of tech is having with respect to jobs is they significantly over-hired during the boom times and to some degree the past few years has been payback for overaggressive hiring, ... But I think that process is largely over and we should see slightly better job growth in tech by this time next year."
"Christmas sales are shaping up to be OK."
"I think the Fed will get rid of the reference about what to do in the future. I think they will make the statement as plain vanilla as possible, and they won't try to send a strong signal one way or the other."
"Gasoline, home heating prices, they are very volatile. Some months they're up, some months they're down. They depend on the vagaries of the weather ? It's warm, it's cold. The big decline I think will result in a big increase next month."
"You are going to spend more to drive your car and to heat your home."
"The work force is growing not because employers are hiring a lot of new workers to staff expanding operations. The economy, in other words, is not being driven by businesses out there scouring for opportunity and revenue growth and pushing up wages as they compete to hire more workers."
"In the near term, it's a plus ... a steady source of jobs and income. In the longer term, it's an increasing amount of economic resources going to a part of the economy that may not enhance underlying productivity."
"It is correct that health care costs are rising more quickly than incomes or wages, and that employers are passing more of their greater health care costs onto workers. But the increase in health care spending is not greater than the increase in incomes or wages."
"Consumer spending growth will moderate, but it won't impede the current pace of economic expansion."
"This should be a year where the tech market stabilizes but I don't see job growth until 2004."
"As the memory of the tech bust fades, we seem to be getting better and better job growth."
"The surge in energy prices we have seen to date will be partially passed through to consumers."
"The risks are clearly that inflation will accelerate further because of energy."
"The new chairman will want to show his inflation-fighting mettle. Early on, Chairman Greenspan was on the aggressive side to establish his credentials."
"I would attach a reasonably high probability that there will be a problem in the housing or finance markets that will test the next Fed chairman."
"Of the 2.7 million jobs lost since employment's peak, roughly a third have been lost to overseas competition, and most if not all of those jobs are not coming back, ... And that trend is going to continue."
"The Port of New Orleans alone imports 250,000 tons of coffee every year."
"[At a minimum, this will hit consumers' pocketbooksâââ‰â¬Âand perhaps their confidence. Before Katrina, Goldstein estimated that consumers' annual fuel bills this year would average about $250 more for gasoline and $400 more for home heating oil and natural gas than in 2004. Now he reckons those amounts will go up 30 percent to 75 percent. Costlier energy could adversely affect consumer spending, corporate profits and inflationâââ‰â¬Âor all three.] We could be reaching a tipping point on consumer psychology, especially when people get their home heating bills, ... Those will be big."
"The consequences are more serious. Right now there is zero margin for error. Nothing can go wrong."
"If the job market doesn't kick into higher gear soon, consumers will lose confidence and rein in their spending, and the economy will in all likelihood fall back into recession unless we're very lucky."
"This suggests that the economy has largely shrugged off the ill effects of the hurricanes. Christmas will turn out better than expected."
"It's almost certain that the Fed will be more upbeat about the economy."
"The economy is much improved over the past year but it's still underperforming,"
"If illegal immigration came to a standstill, it would disrupt the economy. It would lead to higher prices for many goods and services, and some things literally would not get done. It would be a major adjustment for our economy, for sure."
"if the financial markets were reeling and the images from the Gulf were getting worse instead of better, if energy prices were rising instead of falling. But given the economic data and financial markets, there's no reason to make a symbolic move."
"Consumers are reeling from the high energy bills and that has to be watched very carefully. Another month of falling consumer confidence would be disturbing."
"I don't really put too much weight on the big ups and downs in the energy prices. And food prices also fell. That probably is related to the warm winter weather, and we can't count on that continuing for very long, either."
"If you add up all the energy that flows through the region, it accounts for about a third of the nation's supply."